Forecasters are predicting a busy Atlantic hurricane season. The projections point to a potential weather double-whammy, said Zachary Handlos, senior academic professional at the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. “The forecasts are expecting a higher frequency of storms this year, potentially aligned with record-breaking years like 2020 and 2005,” he noted. “But then on top of that there's a high chance of a few major hurricanes that could be thrown in the mix of all the named storms.” 

Thirty named storms formed in 2020. Fifteen Atlantic cyclones became hurricanes in 2005 including Katrina, which caused nearly $200 billion in damage and led to more than 1,800 deaths. Both seasons were influenced by La Niña patterns, which involve the cooling of tropical Pacific waters but lead to a reduction in vertical wind shear that acts as a brake against Atlantic hurricanes. This year, warming Atlantic waters and the expected arrival of a La Niña pattern are driving expectations for a hyperactive hurricane season. “The waters are already warmer than usual in the Atlantic, and warm water is a key ingredient for kind of starting off and forming hurricanes,” Handlos said. “If you mix that trend on top of the possible La Niña setup, it's just a potential recipe for disaster.”